Thursday, December 29, 2011

2012 Predictions on Predictions

Credit to Cameron Morfit for doing all the heavy lifting, but I've assessed the likelihood of his predictions below.

1. Tiger’s first official PGA Tour victory in more than two years will come at the WGC-Cadillac Championship at Doral. 40% - Good course for scoring, and a good track record. TW is the 'whelming' (vice overwhelming) favorite.

2. Jim Furyk, who dropped from fifth to 50th in the World Ranking in 2011, will go the other direction in 2012. 100% - Furyk had a terrible 2011, hard to see him not playing better in 2012.

3. Rickie Fowler will win on the PGA Tour. 90% - Like the prediction, but I wouldn't bet the house. If I had in 2011, I'd be homeless.

4. We will all slap our foreheads and lament having overlooked 2011 super-rookie Brendan Steele. 100% - Steele has got ridiculous game, and will win multiple times in 2012.

5. Hunter Mahan will win again. 100% - He's got too much talent, and has won on a variety of courses. He'll kiss a cup in 2012. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the Wells Fargo at Quail Creek.

6. Yani Tseng will finally pop up on the radar of the American sports fan. 0% - She could win all four (five?) Women's Majors and outdraw a September Bengals/Chiefs afternoon game.

7. John Daly’s sponsor exemptions will dry up as “Daly fatigue” outweighs “Daly curiosity.” 0% - JD will find a way to do something outrageous, draw attention, and undeserved sponsor exemptions.

8. Martin Kaymer will miss the cut, again, at the Masters. 0% - MK tooled his game for Augusta in 2011, to no avail. He goes a different route in 2012, trusts his talent, and makes the weekend easily.

9. Leading the Par-3 Contest the day before the start of the Masters, McIlroy will have his caddie, girlfriend Caroline Wozniacki, hit his tee shot on nine. Who cares? - I watch the Par-3 for the needling between Nicklaus/Palmer/Player. Winner is always an afterthought.

10. Ernie Els will play his way back to Augusta despite finishing 2011 outside the top 50, which jeopardized his streak of Masters starts that dates to 1994. 20% - as much as I love the Big Easy, who is one of my favorite professional golfers, he needs to rid himself of the belly putter and find confidence on the greens before reascending the OWGR. I don't see it happening in early 2012.

11. Ian Poulter, coming off a victory at the Australian Masters in December, will bounce back after a poor 2011. 90% - Poulter wins on tour(s), both PGA and European in (calendar year) 2012, which qualifies as a bounce back.

12. Caddie Joe LaCava will look like the second biggest genius in golf after having left reliable money-maker Dustin Johnson to work for the retooling and fragile-looking Tiger Woods last fall. 100% - I've never been fond of DJ's putting stroke, or short game. He played abysmally in the President's Cup, and his win at the Barclay's was more on account of Kuchar faltering (has he ever won on slick greens?).

Overall, Morfit hits on more than 50% (discarding #9) which is commendable.

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